eMarketer Headline Needs a “Yet”
On Wednesday of this week eMarketer released data indicating, as they trumpeted, “Podcasting Not Too Profitable.” A headline that got my attention, as it would anyone who is dedicated to monetizing any kind of downloadable media. The last thing we want to hear is that money isn’t being made by people generating incredible content. I mean, really, who wants to go after a piece of pie that represents “less than 0.2% of Zenith’s projection for the total online advertising space.”?
However, once you look past the “glass half empty” headline you’ll see real opportunity. Opportunity to do so much better. Opportunity that was really the reason a group of forward thinking people decided to form the Association for Downloadable Media. How about, “Podcasting Not Too Profitable…Yet!”
First, let’s look at some of the facts about podcasting consumption. After all, you can’t make money on a product or service unless there are people using it, right? Well podcasting is being used…alot. This fact will be reinforced by data to be presented during our May 21st webcast with Edison Research’s Tom Webster and that same fact was noted in data the aforementioned eMarketer have themselves touted as recently as March 9th of this year. “As a percentage of Internet users, podcast downloaders will grow from 9% in 2008 to 17% in 2013.”
To be clear, when eMarketer states that “The appetite for podcasts is fairly light” they are referencing the appetite of media buyers, not podcast users. So, it’s not a matter of finding audience, it’s a matter of increasing the appetite of advertisers for, or even making them aware of the existence of, that audience.
We must seize the opportunity. Or as Tom Webster says in his Infinite Dial post, “Projections generally describe a possible future–perhaps even a probable future–but not the only future. The key is, what are podcasters going to do to change it?” Downloadable media producers (in this case podcasters, must work harder, whether it’s an organized manner through the ADM, or by individually approaching advertisers to sing the praises of reaching consumers through this new and highly personal medium.
While eMarketer* “projects” ad spending will increase to $43 million in 2013, we will continue to champion a medium that is growing in appeal and audience to those that seek to reach that audience. Enough so that the current projection looks like chump change when we look back at it.
(*Update: As noted below the “projection” was that of Zenith Optimedia rather than eMarketer’s.)
Tags: ADM Podcast Episodes, advertising, Edison Research, emarketer

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May 15, 2009
Phil, thanks for the optimism! In reading this yesterday as well, I sent a note to Paul Verna asking how these new numbers reconcile with a 2008 eMarketer report PODCAST ADVERTISING: SEEKING RICHES IN NICHES that forecasted US Podcasting ad spend at $310M in 2009 growing to $400M in 2011. Paul responded that he simply has not yet had the time to analyze the conflicting reports and offered that at first glace, the discrepancy is possibly the result of
(from Paul)
(1)changes in the fundamentals of podcast advertising between early 2008 and mid-2009 and
(2)differences in methodology between Zenith and the data on which we based our earlier forecast.
He mentioned that he plans to deep dive into this once a few other items are off his plate.
Jeff
May 15, 2009
As a follow-up, I spoke with Paul and he wanted to clarify that this is not an eMarketer projection. It’s a Zenith Optimedia projection that eMarketer happened to highlight in their online newsletter.
Jeff